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Applied mathematics · systems · evidence

DresdenGoehner

2026

Building decision systems that make uncertainty visible.

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Research direction

Independent work · 2023—2026

Models are useful only when we know where they fail.

I work across probabilistic modeling, energy systems, machine learning, open-source science, and products for real-world decisions.

The throughline is simple: replace impressive claims with calibrated evidence, explicit provenance, and tests designed to falsify the model.

I build instruments that help people see what neat systems leave out—without making uncertainty disappear.

Enter the complete archive

Selected artifacts

Open public work · current product surfaces

Images are working artifacts, not decorative stock photography. Each public surface opens directly; access-gated functions are identified in the project record rather than presented as public evidence.

Evidence snapshot

Captured August 2026

65,711hours of continuous grid data
15merged upstream pull requests
22Math StackExchange answers
11accepted answers

Dated, independently captured records. No private documents are published on this site.

The model missed its calibration gate. That result mattered more than a polished demo.

Research note · GERT out-of-time evaluation

Flagship work

Systems · research · products

Work designed to survive contact with evidence.

01

Extreme systems

GERT interface showing grid risk signals
GERT · P50—P99 risk viewArtifact
01flagship system

Grid Extreme Risk Toolkit · GERT

Seeing the tail before it becomes the headline.

Probabilistic grid-risk research built around P50–P99 forecasts, capacity margin, scenario intervention, provenance, and explicit simulated/live/stale labels.

  • 65,711 hours of continuous grid data
  • Two strict out-of-time evaluations
  • Artifact and calibration gates
  • Public research and presentation modes
View repository
01Aresearch companion

PJM Polar-Vortex Study

Annual accuracy hid rare-event failure.

Fixed forecast origins and cold-event windows showed why ordinary validation can look acceptable while interval coverage collapses during the event that matters.

Read the study
02

Decision laboratories

EPSILON trading simulator
EPSILON · synthetic demoArtifact
02flagship system

EPSILON

A trading simulator that asks which assumption breaks first.

A quantitative decision lab for testing orders, slippage, costs, drawdown, frequency structure, and falsification rules without presenting synthetic paths as historical validation.

  • Python, Next.js, and FastAPI generations
  • Deterministic synthetic public demo
  • Explicit non-investment and provenance labels
Open the live demo
03

Products that remember and perceive

03Adecision memory

FutureOS

Decisions should remember why they changed.

A live decision operating system for consequential work under uncertainty. It preserves what someone believed before acting, lets evidence revise that belief without erasing its history, and separates process quality from the luck of the final outcome.

  • Public product site and no-setup, five-step walkthrough
  • Frame → forecast → update → resolve operating loop
  • Expected utility, Bayesian revision, Brier scoring, and option value
  • Versioned decision memory; personal workspaces remain sign-in gated
Open FutureOS
03Bassistive perception

AI Navigation Glasses

Assistive vision with safety boundaries.

A low-cost multimodal navigation system exploring traffic signals, obstacles, voice feedback, privacy, and maintainability for visually impaired users.

See the hardware and community impact

Assistive AI · hardware + community

Earlier prototype · current safety redesign

AI Navigation Glasses

Assistive vision should expand agency—not replace judgment.

The project began as a low-cost hardware effort for visually impaired users: recognizing traffic lights and nearby obstacles, then turning those observations into restrained voice guidance.

Earlier community work extended across three communities and included hands-on sessions teaching visually impaired older adults how to assemble and maintain the devices—moving the idea from a prototype someone could watch to a system a community could understand.

Earlier workHardware + community teaching

Low-cost assembly, maintenance, and hands-on use across three communities.

Current public prototypeSafety + privacy redesign

Confidence-aware alerts, authenticated ingestion, replayable demos, and explicit limitations.

03communities reached in the earlier program
13automated tests in the current safety prototype
0raw video, audio, or location fields retained in event history

The current public redesign is deliberately more cautious: low-confidence detections never become action commands, repeated alerts are suppressed, and the software is presented as a research prototype—not a certified mobility aid or a replacement for a cane, guide dog, traffic rules, or user judgment.

Open the safety-conscious prototype

Community reach and teaching activity are documented in project and application records retained in the private evidence library.

Complete work index

13 of 13 records · filter by practice

Not a highlight reel. A working archive.

Projects are grouped by the question they ask, not only by the technology used. Across systems, research, products, and community work, the method repeats: observe complexity, make the assumptions explicit, test what survives, and share it responsibly. Public links are included where available; prototypes and supporting records are labeled honestly.

01

Energy · probabilistic systems

Grid Extreme Risk Toolkit (GERT)

A decision-facing toolkit for tail-risk forecasting: P50–P99 intervals, capacity margin, scenario intervention, provenance, and strict simulated/live/stale labels.

Public repository · active buildOpen record ↗
02

Energy · research paper

PJM Polar-Vortex Study

A cold-event evaluation that tests fixed forecast origins, interval coverage, and why annual averages can conceal failure exactly when the grid is stressed.

Research artifactOpen record ↗
03

Quantitative decision lab

EPSILON

A trading simulator for orders, slippage, costs, drawdown, frequency structure, and falsification rules, with synthetic demo paths clearly marked.

Public repository · live demoOpen record ↗
04

Decision system · probabilistic memory

FutureOS

A live decision operating system that frames consequential choices, records forecasts, updates beliefs with evidence, and resolves outcomes without erasing the reasoning history.

Public product site · live guided demo · gated workspaceOpen record ↗
05

Assistive AI · safety

AI Navigation Glasses

A low-cost multimodal research prototype exploring traffic signals, obstacles, restrained voice feedback, privacy, and maintainability for visually impaired users.

Public research prototype · 13 testsOpen record ↗
06

AI · information theory

NEE / Neuro-Entropic Engine

An exploratory architecture connecting entropy, information flow, and model behavior; the visual artifact is a research map, not a finished product claim.

Exploratory researchOpen record ↗
07

Mathematics · computation

Collatz Descent Framework

Computational experiments around descent structure and stopping-time questions for the Collatz map, with conjectures separated from verified observations.

Public research notebookOpen record ↗
08

Mechanics · bilingual explanation

AP Physics Tennis-Racket Theorem

A visual treatment of rigid-body rotation, polhodes, and the intermediate-axis theorem written to make a difficult physical idea teachable.

Research / teaching artifactEvidence on file
09

Statistics · visualization

30-project Data Lab

Thirty applied analyses across consumer behavior, finance, housing, sentiment, public health, environment, transport, and labor.

13 individual · 17 group projectsEvidence on file
10

Community · founder / president

Polymath Society

A student-led interdisciplinary society connecting mathematics, science, economics, and creative explanation through talks and project work.

Leadership record · brochureEvidence on file
11

Product · community operations

Club Platform

A platform concept for clubs to publish work, onboard members, and preserve institutional memory beyond a single school year.

Product conceptEvidence on file
12

Operations · software concept

Nexus Club OS

A club-operations system exploring structured events, member records, and repeatable workflows. Not presented as a production deployment.

Public concept repo · not deployedOpen record ↗
13

Industry · data strategy

Energy Innovation

A summer data-strategy internship connecting electricity, innovation, and decisions under uncertainty.

Industry experience · internshipEvidence on file

Data laboratory

30 applied analyses

Many datasets. One habit: make the question explicit.

These projects move from collection to cleaning, visualization, modeling, and interpretation. The list keeps group work visible while distinguishing individual work from shared production.

13 individual projects

  1. Tmall coupon behavior
  2. Double 11 beauty conversion
  3. Uniqlo customer segmentation
  4. Xiaohongshu spending patterns
  5. Domestic vs international box office
  6. Spring Festival box office
  7. Credit-card fraud detection
  8. PPDai credit risk
  9. Second-hand house scraping
  10. Olympics performance
  11. Airline customer value
  12. Bike-sharing demand
  13. Hotel booking cancellation

Individual source files remain in the private evidence library.

17 group projects

  1. Seasonal vegetable prices
  2. Advertising effectiveness
  3. JD sentiment
  4. Maternal / infant products
  5. Supermarket baskets
  6. Postgraduate score visualization
  7. Weibo sentiment
  8. 50 Pyecharts examples
  9. Water-quality image analysis
  10. House-price modeling
  11. Second-hand house market
  12. Census age structure
  13. National census
  14. Marriage status
  15. Tourist attractions
  16. Data analyst jobs
  17. Employee turnover
Open public group index

Open-source engineering

15 independently verified merged PRs

NetworkX pull request evidence
NetworkX #8735 · merged upstreamOpen PR ↗

Execution, audited in public

Contributing where the scientific details are sharpest.

These are code changes accepted into upstream projects—not stars claimed for the pull requests. Each item links directly to its public review record.

Mathematical practice

Public record · dated snapshot

978Math StackExchange reputation
22answers
11accepted answers
37answer score sum
3kestimated reach reported by Stack Exchange

Explaining is part of the proof.

Alongside competitions and formal certificates, public answers show how I reason in the open: definitions first, edge cases next, and a willingness to correct the story when the evidence disagrees. The public profile reports 3k estimated reach—a platform estimate based on views of helpful posts, not a count of unique readers.

View public profile

Competitions & honors

Primary evidence + supporting records

BMO Round 2 Distinction certificate
BMO R2 2026 · 27/40 · Distinction / Best in SchoolArtifact
AIME 2026 qualification certificate
AIME 2026 · 14/15 · QualificationArtifact
Stanford Math Tournament Algebra third place certificate
Stanford Mathematics Tournament · Algebra 3rdArtifact
Stanford Math Tournament Discrete seventh place certificate
Stanford Mathematics Tournament · Discrete 7thArtifact
BPhO Round 1 2025–26 Global Top Gold certificate
BPhO R1 2025–26 · 80/100 · Global Top GoldArtifact
SMC Gold certificate
SMC 2025 · 120/125 · GoldArtifact
LSE Top Gold certificate
LSE 2025 · 97/100 · Top GoldArtifact
World Scholar’s Cup Beijing 2025 record with school names redacted
World Scholar’s Cup · Beijing 2025Artifact
ACSL Senior Division participation certificate
ACSL · Senior · Written 6/6 · Program 6/6Artifact
01

BMO Round 2 2026

27 / 40 · Distinction · Best in School

certificate
02

USAJMO

Qualifier · supporting record retained privately

record
03

AIME 2026

14 / 15 · Qualified · Certificate of Excellence

certificate
04

Stanford Mathematics Tournament · Algebra 2026

3rd place

certificate
05

Stanford Mathematics Tournament · Discrete 2026

7th place

certificate
06

BPhO Round 1 · 2025–26

80 / 100 · Global Top Gold · Beijing rank 5 · Best in School

certificate
07

SMC 2025

120 / 125 · Gold

certificate
08

LSE Economics Challenge 2025

97 / 100 · one question missed · Top Gold

certificate
09

World Scholar’s Cup · Beijing 2025

Overall Champion Scholar · 1st Total · 3rd Place Senior Team · Global Qualifier

certificate
10

ACSL 2025–26 · Senior Division

Written 6 / 6 · Program 6 / 6 · Total 12 / 12

certificate
11

NYT Learning Network · My List Contest 2025–26

Top 25% · at least second round · 970 of 4,004 entries

record

Certificates confirm the published distinctions shown beside them. Score and regional-rank details appear only where supported by retained personal or organizer records. Private transcripts, raw score reports, email attachments, and identity-sensitive documents remain in the local evidence library.

Profile in one frame

How the pieces connect

Curiosity becomes useful when it can be shared.

I build at the seam between mathematics, technology, and people: a model needs a decision, a product needs a reason, and a team needs a memory.

Different formats, same method: start with a difficult question, make the structure visible, test what survives, then build something another person can use. That is why the archive includes code, diagrams, competitions, data work, leadership, and the limitations between them.

In development

A short voice, when the work needs a person.

A 60–90 second introduction is being developed to connect the systems, communities, and questions in my own voice.

Industry

Energy Innovation · data strategy intern

Leadership

Polymath Society · founder / president
Club platform · community systems

Learning

Linear algebra · trading & machine learning · market microstructure

Polymath Society brochure
Polymath Society · leadership recordArtifact
Dresden Goehner seated in a library
Profile · person behind the systemsArtifact

A human scale

The work has a face, too.

The systems, proofs, and products begin with attention: to what people notice, what they cannot access, and what a careful explanation can change.

Field Notes

Published work only · future formats stay private

A separate editorial room

Questions that stay with the work.

Open the Field Notes archive

The main page keeps only finished, source-backed notes in view. The independent archive is designed for essays, conversations, and videos, but unfinished work stays private until the source and the claim are ready.

Evidence, not decoration

Public-safe index

Every claim should lead somewhere.

Public repositories, dated API captures, methods, limitations, and original project records form the verification layer behind this site. The local evidence library remains the source of truth.